Tampa Bay's Q2 2026 market is stable but increasingly bifurcated. The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.49% nationally (Freddie Mac, late June 2026), and the Fed held rates steady at its June meeting. The region's MSA median listing price is $399,925 (FRED, June 2026) — essentially flat from Q1. Single-family homes in strong school zones and low-flood-risk areas continue to move in 30–45 days. Condos, flood-zone properties, and anything needing work are sitting significantly longer. Inventory is rising across all three counties, giving buyers more leverage — but serious cash buyers can still close in days on properties that retail buyers won't touch.
$445K
SF Median (Jun 2026)
+1.2% YoY
41 days
Tampa Days on Market
Up from 36
3.7 mo
Months of Supply
−14.9% inventory YoY
97.2%
List-to-Sale Ratio
Stable
| City |
Median / Avg. Price |
YoY Change |
Days on Market |
Trend |
| Tampa |
$443K (3-mo avg. May 2026) |
−1.4% |
41 days |
Stable |
| Hillsborough SF Median |
$445,155 (Jun 2026) |
+1.2% |
31 days to contract |
Stable |
| South Tampa |
$600K+ (fixer-uppers) |
Holding premium |
Condos 100+ days |
Mixed |
| Hillsborough Condos |
$283K median |
Flat YoY |
5.6 months supply |
Soft |
| Sun City Center |
~$305K (most affordable in county) |
Declining |
Extended; 449+ listings |
Softening |
| Brandon / Riverview / Plant City |
Suburban value tier |
Stable to slight decline |
Variable by price range |
Stable |
Key Insights
▸Florida's June 2026 housing report shows the statewide SF median up 4.9% YoY. Hillsborough County SF median reached $445,155 in June — up 1.2% YoY with 3.7 months of supply. Closed sales were down just 1% from a year ago.
▸Tampa city median sits at $443K over the 3 months ending May 2026 — technically down 1.4% YoY, but homes are going under contract in 41 days and 1,590 homes sold in May (up from 1,527 last year). Volume is healthy.
▸Hillsborough inventory fell 14.9% year-over-year, tightening supply to 3.7 months for single-family homes. Well-priced SF homes are going under contract in 31 days at 97.2% of list price.
▸The condo market remains the county's weak point: Hillsborough condos sit at $283K median with 5.6 months of supply — near balanced but well below the SF market's activity level.
▸Sun City Center remains the most affordable and slowest-moving submarket in the county at ~$305K, with extended days on market. Retirement-community sellers facing life changes have limited retail options.
What This Means If You're Selling
Hillsborough SF homes are holding steady in Q2 2026 — but only the ones that are priced right and in good shape. Condos, retirement-community properties, and anything with deferred maintenance are sitting in a buyer-favorable segment. If your property isn't move-in ready or carries complications, a cash offer closes in days — no inspection contingencies, no financing delays, no negotiation over repairs.
Sources: Redfin (May–Jun 2026), Florida Realtors June 2026 Report (via JB Realty), Movoto, FRED/Realtor.com MSA data (Jun 2026), Realtytrac. | Last Updated: Q2 2026
$435K
Wesley Chapel Median List
~$474K active listings
82 days
Wesley Chapel DOM
Rising vs. Q1
31%
Listings With Price Cuts
Buyer leverage high
6.52%
Avg. 30-Yr Rate (Pasco)
Holding steady
| City |
Median / Avg. Price |
YoY Change |
Market Character |
Trend |
| Wesley Chapel |
~$474K median list; $435K typical |
Stabilizing |
82 days; 1,319 active listings |
Neutral / Buyer Lean |
| New Port Richey |
$240K–$268K (sold); $265K list |
+11.6% (small sample) |
47 days; 136 active listings |
Stabilizing |
| Land O' Lakes |
Mid-range suburban |
Stable |
Steady |
Stable |
| Zephyrhills / Dade City |
Affordable tier; some 198+ DOM listings |
Slow to flat |
Extended for overpriced homes |
Cooling |
| Trinity / Odessa / Lutz |
Premium suburban |
Holding |
Limited inventory |
Stable |
Key Insights
▸Wesley Chapel inventory surged to 1,319 active listings in May 2026 — up from 945 in April — with 82 days average on Movoto. Volume is up (1,319 sold in May vs. 1,079 last year) but buyers have significantly more options and leverage than in 2025.
▸Pasco County's Momentum Market Score reads 65/100 — leaning buyer. About 31% of listings have cut their price. Owning the median Pasco home costs ~$1,823/month before property tax at current rates.
▸New Port Richey is showing signs of stabilization in Q2: median sold price $240K–$268K, 47 days on market (down from 50 last year), and 1,124 active listings. Price per sqft dipped 5% YoY — buyers still have the upper hand on older inventory.
▸Wesley Chapel's median listing of $474K is well above New Port Richey's $265K — Pasco remains a tale of two markets. The I-75 corridor commands a significant premium over western Pasco.
What This Means If You're Selling
Wesley Chapel's inventory surge in Q2 means buyers have real choices — and sellers without new construction quality are competing against 1,300+ active listings. In western Pasco, the market has stabilized but leverage still sits with buyers. Distressed, inherited, or problem properties in Pasco won't move fast through retail channels. A cash offer closes in days regardless of condition.
Sources: Redfin (May 2026), Movoto (May–Jun 2026), Resideline (Jul 2026), Broker One (Jul 2026), Move With Momentum Pasco Scorecard, Realtytrac. | Last Updated: Q2 2026
$409K
County Median (May 2026)
+2.2% YoY
47 days
Avg. Days on Market
Up from 42
1,674
Homes Sold (May 2026)
Up from 1,590
$285
Median Price per Sq Ft
+3.3% YoY
| City |
Median / Avg. Value |
YoY Change |
Key Notes |
Trend |
| St. Petersburg |
$478K (3-mo avg. May 2026) |
+15.1% |
35 days; 1,532 sold May |
Surging |
| Pinellas SF (countywide) |
$450K (Feb 2026) |
+1.1% |
3.8 months supply; tightening |
Stable |
| Pinellas Condos |
Up 26.5% YoY (luxury distortion) |
Luxury towers driving avg. |
Older beach condos still slow |
Mixed |
| Dunedin |
~$450K–$545K |
Appreciating |
Fast; low flood risk; low supply |
Strong |
| Palm Harbor |
~$478K–$585K |
Stable |
Inventory rising; buyers have options |
Steady |
| Largo / Pinellas Park |
$325K–$380K |
Modest appreciation |
50–70 days; affordable tier |
Balanced |
| St. Pete Beach / Treasure Island |
Distressed / land value |
Ongoing cuts |
Insurance & FEMA map headwinds |
Distressed |
Key Insights
▸Pinellas County Q2 2026: median $409K over the 3 months ending May, up 2.2% YoY. 1,674 homes sold in May — up from 1,590 last year. Price per square foot hit $285, up 3.3% YoY. The county is holding steady.
▸St. Petersburg continues to lead the region: $478K 3-month median (May 2026), up 15.1% YoY, with 1,532 homes sold. Homes are selling in 35 days on average — faster than a year ago. Downtown luxury towers at 400 Central and Art House are adding closed transactions that amplify the headline numbers.
▸Pinellas single-family inventory tightened to 3.8 months of supply in February — a notable shift toward sellers. Dunedin and Safety Harbor continue to move fastest due to walkability, low flood risk, and lifestyle appeal.
▸The Pinellas condo headline (+26.5% YoY) is misleading — it's driven almost entirely by luxury tower closings in downtown St. Pete. Older condos on the beaches and in flood-risk areas remain soft, with insurance and HOA reserve requirements deterring buyers.
▸FEMA flood map revisions anticipated for 2026 could reshape insurance eligibility across coastal Pinellas. Sellers in affected zones face mounting uncertainty — a cash buyer skips all of it.
What This Means If You're Selling
Pinellas Q2 2026 is performing well at the county level, but the split between inland SF homes and coastal/condo properties has never been wider. St. Pete and Dunedin buyers are competing. Beach condo and flood-zone property owners are not. If your Pinellas property carries any complications — flood zone, storm damage, aging HOA building, insurance challenges — a cash offer is your fastest and cleanest exit. We buy as-is, on your timeline.
Sources: Redfin (May 2026), Corcoran Dwellings Pinellas/Hillsborough Feb 2026 report, Pinellas County Property Data (thepcproperty.com), Mangrove Bay Realty (Jul 2026), FRED MSA data (Jun 2026). | Last Updated: Q2 2026